The deal that died at the finish line
The sequence of events at Goodison Park on deadline night reads like a horror story for Evertonians. First, the good news: Iliman Ndiaye’s £65m move to Manchester City was confirmed, solving the club’s profitability question in one stroke. Then the bad: the £40m deal for US international Folarin Balogun collapsed late, leaving David Moyes with exactly one senior striker for the entire first half of the season.
The window had already closed by the time the paperwork failed. There is no repair job until January.
Why Balogun, and why £40m raised eyebrows
The skouted.ai engine rates Balogun at 72 OVR with a market value of €12.0M to €19.6M. A £40m fee would have been more than double the top of his valuation band, a huge premium for a 24-year-old whose Monaco return has been solid without ever forcing a queue of elite suitors.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| OVR | 72 |
| Market value | €12.0M – €19.6M |
| Fee Everton tried to pay | £40m (~€46M) |
| Premium over top of value band | ~135% |
| Age | 24 |
| Position | ST |
Paying double market value is sometimes defensible when the need is existential. Everton’s need was existential. But the collapse of the deal means the club now carries all of the risk it was trying to buy its way out of, with none of the reward.
The maths of a one-striker season
A single striker for 20-plus league matches, plus cups, is not a squad plan. It is a fitness lottery. One injury or suspension and Moyes must either redesign his system around a false nine, promote from the academy, or field a player out of position. Every match week between now and January becomes an exercise in damage limitation.
There is a silver lining, and it is financial. The £65m from Ndiaye plus the failed £40m outlay means Everton head into January with genuine spending power and a clear shopping list. Free agents remain an option too, and the pool of available strikers always contains at least one useful name.
AI Verdict: Hold
Balogun himself stays at Monaco with a full season to rebuild his number. For Everton, the verdict on their window management is already in: selling your creator and failing to sign his replacement on the same night is a structural failure, not bad luck.
View full profile and AI-powered transfer intelligence at skouted.ai